Ep. 141 Brian Bailey: A Federal Reserve Commercial Real Estate Expert’s Outlook on Florida

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As part of the Federal Reserve’s wide scope of responsibility and oversight, the eight regional branches are tasked with monitoring residential and commercial real estate markets; tracking trends and data in order to more accurately adjust to market fluctuations affecting the economy. These studies provide hard data for the Fed to make economic adjustments, but they can also be a great gauge for real estate investors. Any successful investor will tell you that the ability to forecast changes in the real estate cycle is vital. As much as knowing your market and asset class, an awareness of other economic factors is important for mitigating investment risk.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta serves as the central bank’s regional authority for the southeast. It tracks real estate markets for the region, including Florida and offers comparisons on a national scale. Our guest this week is a commercial real estate expert with the Fed’s Atlanta branch.

Florida commercial real estate outlookBrian Bailey is a Senior Technical Expert in the Supervision and Regulation Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Specializing in commercial real estate, Brian tracks and analyzes emerging trends in the southeastern region and provides thought leadership on commercial real estate and guidance for the central bank.

Brian brings a diverse background in commercial real estate finance and acquisitions to the Fed. He has over 15 years of experience in commercial real estate finance, having managed financing for millions of square feet in real estate holdings for several large-scale equity and development firms. Brian received an MBA with concentrations in Real Estate and Finance from the University of Florida and has earned a CCIM designation.

You won’t want to miss this commercial real estate outlook on Florida!

 

 

 

Ep. 140 Courtney Barnard: Top 3 Legislative Issues Affecting Multifamily Investors for 2018

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While investors prefer real estate over other assets and securities due to its relative stability, it’s not without fluctuations of its own. Real estate is affected by a number of external forces, from the economy to local, state and federal legislation. What sets fluctuations in real estate apart from other investment classes is it’s general predictability; hardly anything happens out of nowhere in real estate. Most factors affecting real estate can be accurately tracked and anticipated. Investors who can keep ahead of these changes are able to mitigate much more risk in their investment.

Legislation is one of the most important factors affecting real estate investors. It affects everyone down to the local level and is able to affect every facet of real estate investing from financing to construction. With so much to keep track of, staying on top of current legislation may seem intimidating, but there are tools and resources available to assist you. For Florida multifamily investors, that’s our guest for this week!

legislative updates affecting multifamily investorsCourtney Barnard is a returning guest to the show and we’re so glad to have her back. Courtney is the Government Affairs Director for the Florida Apartment Association (FAA), the statewide chapter of the National Apartment Association (NAA).

The NAA/FAA serves as the primary advocate for residential multifamily investors and apartment owners. Not only does it represent apartment owners in front of lawmakers, it also provides education and support for investors. As Government Affairs Director, it’s Courtney’s job to track all national and statewide legislation affecting multifamily residential real estate and relay it to investors. Each year, Courtney provides an annual legislative update on key legislation that directly affects the residential multifamily industry.

Find out the Top 3 Legislative Issues affecting multifamily investors in 2018!

 

Ep. 138 John McNellis: Retail and Multifamily Investors Won’t Want to Miss This Development Outlook

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Where is retail heading?

development outlookThis is a question we’ve gotten a lot lately from our listeners and investors. With the rise of online shopping through Ecommerce options like Amazon, we’ve been seeing some rapid tightening in retail development across the board. With big-box retail winding down and shopping center investments getting tight, many investors and developers are wondering what comes next.

Our guest this week is an expert on spotting development trends and cycles. John McNellis is a developer, speaker and author. Founder and President of Mcnellis Partners development firm, John has been developing a variety of real estate for over 30 years. Although retail and multifamily have been his primary asset classes, John has development experience in several asset classes.

This episode, John joins us to discuss the development outlook for retail and offers advice for investors looking to make the transition to development.

Development Outlook

  • Retail markets challenged throughout the U.S.
    • Over-building of retail
    • Influx of online shopping
  • Retail going through downsizing cycle
  • Industrial market seeing benefits from Ecommerce boom

Approaching Development

  • Residential: best to start with land and build up
  • Retail: finding a good tenant for anchor is best strategy
  • Risk-management is key to long-term success
  • Rule of thumb: look for investments that earn 2% above cap rate
  • Don’t build on spec

Transitioning to Development

  • Find an experienced partner when transitioning to large or mid-size multifamily developments
  • For first-time developers, find a broker in your area that specializes in the asset class you want to develop
  • Approach the public with a project before taking it to city officials

Investment/Development Advice

  • Development follows job growth
  • Urban Land Institute (ULI) is a great resource for developers

Resources

 

 

 

Ep. 137 Ken Rosen: These Buying Strategies Can Help You Choose the Right Investment Property

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There’s no doubt we’re seeing a tightening market. In Florida, especially in the Tampa Bay market, we’re seeing demand outpacing construction; leading to higher prices in asset classes across the board. For investors, this means choosing the right investment property for your portfolio may take a little more work. That’s not to say a great investment isn’t waiting out there for you, it may just require a little creativity.

real estate buying strategiesKen Rosen knows a thing or two about creativity. As one of the leading innovators of South Florida real estate investing, Ken was a pioneer of condo conversions, reinvigorating the area’s multifamily market. Mr. Rosen has continued to be a driving force in South Florida real estate, working with a variety of asset classes before focusing mainly on office investing.

With over 30 years of investing experience and insight and over $500 million in transactions, Ken has earned a respected reputation among investors. He remains an active investor, mentor and educator as well as a best-selling author.

This episode, Ken provides his insight into where the market is at, where it’s heading, and how the right buying strategies can help you make the right investment.


“One good real estate investment is worth a lifetime of labor”


Buying Strategies for Smart Investments

  • Properties with long-term owners of high return opportunities
    • Under-market rates
    • Room to increase rents
  • Account for inflation when writing multi-year leases
    • Office, Flex, Industrial
  • Look for “B” buildings in “A” locations

Investment Properties to Watch

  • Self-storage
  • Multifamily

Resources

Check out Ken’s best-selling book, “Investing in Income Properties: The BIG SIX Formula for Achieving Wealth in Real Estate” for even more insight into Ken’s buying strategies.

For questions or investment opportunities, call Ken directly at (305) 469-6708 or email krosen@kendar.com

 

 

 

Ep. 133 Greg Ruthven: The I-4 Corridor is a Hot Market for Industrial Investors!

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Florida’s I-4 corridor has long been a focus of industrial investors and developers. Connecting Tampa, Orlando and the east coast, the I-4 corridor serves as major transit artery. With recent arrivals of big names, like Amazon and Walmart committing to massive industrial developments, interest in the market has only been growing among industrial investors.

central florida industrial investorsGreg Ruthven is one man who knows what makes the I-4 corridor such a prime market for industrial development.

The Ruthvens, a family-owned and operated business started by Greg’s father, are one of the largest developers and owners of industrial real estate in and around the I-4 corridor. They currently hold 85 warehouse and industrial properties, totaling over 3 million square feet.

This episode, Greg tells us why he loves Central Florida and why the area is such a hot market for industrial investors.

Industrial Investors Love the I-4 Corridor

  • I-4 is major transit artery
  • Central Florida has a lot of available open land to accommodate large developments
  • 10 million people live within 100 miles of Lakeland, FL

Florida Industrial Market is on the Rise

  • Shift towards E-commerce is driving logistics and distribution demand
  • Major companies are consuming warehouse and distribution space
    • Amazon
    • Walmart
    • Major companies drive industrial demand, attracting smaller companies

About The Ruthvens

The Ruthvens have been building and leasing warehouse and industrial space in Central Florida since 1957. Based in Lakeland, the Ruthvens have deep roots in the community and specialize in a commitment to individual warehouse space needs. They build, lease and sell industrial space ranging anywhere from 1,000-150,000 SF.

To learn more about The Ruthvens and their services, visit their website.

“If you need warehouse space, you call the Ruthvens”(863) 686-3173

 

 

 

Ep. 130 Matt Robinson: What You Didn’t Know About the Florida Panhandle Real Estate Market!

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We’ve covered just about every Florida real estate market on this show. From Naples to Jacksonville, we’ve covered all of Florida’s major markets at least once; except for one. The Florida panhandle real estate market has been one market that we haven’t really touched on.

We’d like to thank our guest this week for helping us change that:

Florida panhandle real estate marketMatt Robinson is a veteran real estate investor and a panhandle native. He is the founder of the Professional Investment Guild, which provides real estate networking and education to area investors. With nearly 15 years investing experience and homegrown insight, Matt is the perfect person to talk about what the Florida panhandle real estate market has to offer.

How much do you know about Florida’s panhandle?

Due to it’s virtual separation from the rest of the state, its often overlooked by investors looking for a potential market. However, the Florida panhandle real estate market has a lot to offer investors.

The panhandle has beautiful coastlines for vacationing and Pensacola is a major economic generator in the area. Plus, the various large-scale military bases throughout the panhandle offer a stable rental market.

If you’ve been wondering about the Florida panhandle real estate market, you won’t want to miss this episode!

  • Strong military rental market:
    • Eglin Airforce Base (USAF)
    • Pensacola NAS (Navy)
    • Hurlburt Field (USAF)
    • Whiting Field NAS (Navy)
  • Economic growth around $1 billion Navy Federal Credit Union Pensacola campus
  • Investments seeing similar appreciation with Sunbelt, but home prices remain low
  • Low inventory and increased demand having an upward pressure on rental rates

Want to learn more about investing in panhandle real estate?

Matt started the Professional Investors Guild in 2013 to help real estate investors network and learn more about current market trends. You can visit their website to find out membership information. Or, you can check their scheduled meetings.

You can contact Matt directly through email at matt@professionalinvestorsguild.com.

Tampa Bay investors:

Join us at our downtown office space every month for real estate networking and educational seminars! You can meet the hosts and past guests, network with real estate professionals and learn important investment tips from expert speakers.

For more information, join our Meetup!

 

Ep. 128 David Farmer: Get a Lead on the Next Hot Real Estate Market!

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Think you know the next hot real estate market?

Then you know a good real estate investment depends on more than just the property. It could have all the right physical features, but if it’s in an under-performing market, then the property will never produce a strong ROI. There are socioeconomic factors that affect an investment’s value. These factors can include: population growth, market supply, and municipal planning.

You can track these factors before making an investment decision using forecast models. You can track pertinent market data as it relates to an investment value. Real estate investors and developers use forecast models to determine what markets to focus on. They can also be used to track up-and-coming markets, so you can get a lead on the next hot real estate market!

get a lead on the next hot real estate marketThere’s few more qualified to talk about forecast modeling than David Farmer. A recognized civil engineer, and city planner, Dave has been in the real estate industry for more than 20 years. He has extensive development experience and is the former Chairman of SW Florida District Council for the Urban Land Institute.

He now lends his extensive real estate expertise to Metro Forecast Modeling (MFM), a population forecasting and modeling firm in Lee County. As CEO of MFM, Dave brings his understanding of growth drivers to forecast analysis.

Find out how you can use forecast models to get a lead on the next hot real estate market!

  • Population growth dictates housing demand which determines what development is needed
  • 2 types of forecast models:
    • Aggregated -  wide-scale analysis of an entire metro area
    • Dis-aggregated - Analyses based on designated zones within a metro area. Lee County is divided into 1400 traffic analysis zones.

Florida Market Forecasts

  • Lehigh Acres:
    • 1-2% vacancy rates, high housing demand
    • Need for commercial development
    • Poor planning makes aggregate development projects difficult
  • Downtown Sarasota:
    • Can accommodate higher density than currently using
    • Multifamily and commercial developments replacing existing small structures
  • Jacksonville:
    • Pent-up housing demand
    • 3000 additional units needed now
    • 1600 more needed by 2020
  • Orlando (City):
    • High housing demand
    • 8000 units needed over next 3 years

Contacts

  • You can contact Dave directly at dave@metroforecasting.com
  • You can find out more about MFM’s services by emailing info@metroforecasting.com

 

 

Ep. 126 Mark Holmes: What Multifamily Investors Need to Know About the Rental Boom

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multifamily investorsThe national housing market is undergoing a major shift and multifamily investors are taking notice. Through economic and generational factors, the housing market is seeing a lessening demand for single family home purchases. Instead of buying a home, young professionals are opting to rent.

Mark Holmes may know this growing trend better than anyone. As a certified property appraiser with Value Tech Realty, Mark travels the United States appraising multifamily properties. As an appraiser, he understands this rental boom from a valuation perspective. As an active single family investor and passive multifamily investor, he understands what it means from an investor’s standpoint.

This episode, Mark gives us a recap of the the national multifamily market as well as the Florida multifamily market. We discuss the recent rental boom and what it means for multifamily investors.

National Multifamily Overview

  • 63% home ownership, down from 69% (2004)
  • 37% renters: 15 million shift
  • Financial recession brought on behavioral shift
  • Job growth jump-started multifamily development

Florida Multifamily Overview

  • Landlord friendly
  • 3% job growth
  • Statewide rent growth: 4%
  • I-4 Corridor rent growth: 6%

Florida Multifamily Markets

  • Tampa
    • 4000 MF units online, last 12 mo.
    • 65% absorption rate
    • 3.7% rent growth
    • Class A: 4.5% cap rates; Class B: 6%
  • Orlando
    • 5,500 MF units online, last 12 mo.
    • 57% absorption
    • 4.8% rent growth
  • Melbourne
    • 8% rent growth in last 12 mo.
  • Miami/SFL
    • 3,500 units online last 12 mo., 3,300 coming
    • Nearly 100% absorption
    • 3.3% rent growth
    • 4.45% cap rates
    • 49% of income goes to rent

What It Means for Multifamily Investors

  • Capital looking to invest in multifamily is out there
  • Class A property growth concessions trickling down to B + Cs
  • Most buyer interest is in multifamily
  • Interest rate increases mean cap rate increases
  • Major market cap rates seeing downward trend

Contact Mark

Looking for property appraisals? Contact Value Tech Realty through their website. For single family and multifamily investors looking to work with Mark on a deal, contact him through email at mark1holmes1@gmail.com.

Ep. 123 Chris Nebenzahl & Doug Ressler: Tracking Investment Market Data Made Easy!

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Tracking Investment Market Data

tracking investment market dataFinding a real estate market that fits your investment goals seems to be getting tougher and tougher. With markets tightening up across the state, investors are starting to feel it. Now, more than ever, investors need to be tracking investment market data – looking for trends and analyzing data to find viable markets.

Investors may be familiar with Yardi for property management services, but did you investment market dataknow they also offer comprehensive market research and data software? This system allows real estate investors to track investment market data on a national level, or zero-in on specific markets and sub-markets.

This episode, we welcome from Yardi Matrix: Senior analyst and editorial contributor, Chris Nebenzahl, and research and data analyst, Doug Ressler. They discuss what investors need to know about tracking investment market data. They also offer up an update on Florida’s commercial and multifamily markets.

Florida Multifamily Overview

  • Rent growth and development strong overall
  • Focus on A + Super A properties
    • Urban living
    • Amenity-rich
    • Attracts millennials
  • Increasing demand for B + C properties, but limited supply
    • B + C properties seeing value-add opportunity
    • Sub-market level

Florida Multifamily Market Highlights

  • Miami and Orlando: 9000 expected multifamily developments for completion, 2017
  • Tampa: 7200 expected multifamily developments for completion, 2017
  • Development expected to crest after 2017
  • Rapid rent growth may pose affordability issues in Miami/SFL

Florida Commercial (Industrial/Self-Storage) Market Overview

  • Strong self-storage appetite
    • New focus on urban core
    • Close proximity to multifamily developments
  • Small cap rate compression
  • Renewed interest in mixed-use developments
  • Hotel occupancy slowing, but Orlando and Miami still strong

Tracking Investment Market Data with Yardi Matrix

Investor Resources and Contact

  • For more information on Yardi Matrix services and subscriptions, visit their website or contact Doug directly by phone at (480) 663-1149 ext. 2419 or email at doug.ressler@yardi.com

 

 

 

Ep. 122 Livingston Hessam: What You Need to Know About the State of Mortgage Banking and Real Estate Lending

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mortgage banking and real estate lendingIt’s a new year and change is in the air. With financial regulation changes sure to come and the recently announced Federal interest rate increases, it’s no wonder mortgage banking and real estate lending is hot on investors’ minds.

This episode, we have Livingston Hessam, who just returned from this year’s Mortgage Bankers Association Commercial Real Estate Finance and Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo.

Listeners will remember Livingston from episode 70, in which he gave us a recap on multifamily mortgage banking and real estate lending from the 2016 conference. Livingston is Vice President of Walker & Dunlop‘s Tampa office. Livingston brings over 12 years of experience in real estate lending and finance solutions to Walker & Dunlop, which just celebrated it’s 80th anniversary.

Livingston offers up a recap of the 2017 CREF/Multifamily MBA Conference and discusses key themes from the past year and the current state of mortgage banking and real estate lending.

What’s In Store for Mortgage Banking and Lending

Agency Annual Caps

  • Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac each allocated $36.5 billion for 2017 (same as 2016)
  • Certain loans and portions of loans are excluded from the cap (i.e. affordable and green/energy efficient)
  • Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac multifamily production totaled over $110 billion in 2016.
  • Fannie up 30%, Freddie up 20% from 2015
  • Expected to capture 40% of total multifamily volume for 2017 ($50-55 billion each)

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS Loans)

  • Risk-retention regulations put in place in 2016, narrowing amount of CMBS lenders
  • Post-election stability, but more selective lending market
  • CMBS lenders ramping up bridge-lending

10-year Spreads

  • Life-insurance (50% leverage and under): 125-135 range
  • CMBS (75% leverage): 250-280 range
  • Agency (80% leverage): Low 200s range
  • Federal interest rate sees .25% increase
  • Expected to increase to 2.75-3% by end of year

Hot Topics

  • Trump Administration
    • Tax reforms
    • Dodd-Frank roll-backs
  • Retail lending
    • Publix most active retail buyer in FL
    • Grocery chains are buying out plazas after lease terms or taking right of first refusal on new lease terms
    • Reduced supply of grocery-anchored retail
    • Strong retail appetite for real estate lenders

Investor Resources

  • In addition to his V.P. role at Walker & Dunlop, Livingston is President of the Society of Real Estate Professionals (SOREP). Formerly the Tampa chapter of University of Florida’s Bergstrom Council, SOREP hosts networking events and seminars to professionals and gives back to Florida universities. SOREP focuses on all aspects of the real estate industry and is open to all. Click here for more info.
  • Walker & Dunlop offers comprehensive real estate financial solutions for all income-producing properties. For more info, visit Walker & Dunlop website.
  • To contact Livingston directly, click here.